Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
38.74925 15900 2.437 SEA Russell Wilson 23.99350 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.75575 7200
32.65235 14200 2.299 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.75960 8300 Marquise Brown 10.89275 5900
39.14269 17300 2.263 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.09000 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.05269 8100
33.50785 15000 2.234 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.25325 7500 A.J. Brown 13.25460 7500
38.96908 17500 2.227 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.01700 8400 Davante Adams 17.95208 9100
31.06270 14000 2.219 CIN Joe Burrow 18.40770 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.65500 6400
33.77560 15300 2.208 BUF Josh Allen 20.12670 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.64890 7100
33.10940 15100 2.193 LAC Justin Herbert 19.02740 7700 Keenan Allen 14.08200 7400
31.35030 14300 2.192 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.33305 6600 George Kittle 14.01725 7700
30.08882 14100 2.134 LV Derek Carr 18.23760 7300 Darren Waller 11.85122 6800
31.19830 14800 2.108 DET Matthew Stafford 17.69075 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.50755 7600
27.14300 13000 2.088 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.25800 Jarvis Landry 9.88500 5800
26.32500 12900 2.041 NO Drew Brees 16.63325 7600 Tre’Quan Smith 9.69175 5300
26.89500 13300 2.022 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.73750 7100 Diontae Johnson 10.15750 6200
29.16670 14600 1.998 LAR Jared Goff 16.90245 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.26425 7300
25.74255 12900 1.996 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.42730 6800 DeVante Parker 10.31525 6100
23.26200 11800 1.971 CHI Nick Foles 14.93800 6700 Anthony Miller 8.32400 5100
29.11971 14800 1.968 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.47985 7100 Adam Thielen 13.63986 7700
23.60350 12300 1.919 NE Cam Newton 16.98200 7400 Damiere Byrd 6.62150 4900
20.68015 11400 1.814 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.33340 6500 Denzel Mims 8.34675 4900
22.65635 12600 1.798 DEN Drew Lock 13.74860 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.90775 5600
10.91175 11500 0.949 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.25475 5500

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
77.05236 32400 2.378 SEA Russell Wilson 23.99350 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.755750 7200
8700 DK Metcalf 14.309607 7800
60.56285 26800 2.260 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.33305 6600 George Kittle 14.017250 7700
6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.879500 5900
77.17093 34400 2.243 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.09000 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.052686 8100
9200 Travis Kelce 13.938239 7900
65.07031 29500 2.206 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.75960 8300 Marquise Brown 10.892750 5900
8300 Mark Andrews 10.658360 7000
63.36655 28800 2.200 BUF Josh Allen 20.12670 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.648904 7100
8200 Cole Beasley 9.464250 5300
62.66559 28600 2.191 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.25325 7500 A.J. Brown 13.254596 7500
7500 Jonnu Smith 8.904491 6100
60.31140 27600 2.185 CIN Joe Burrow 18.40770 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.655000 6400
7600 Tee Higgins 10.841000 6000
57.24517 26400 2.168 LV Derek Carr 18.23760 7300 Darren Waller 11.851221 6800
7300 Nelson Agholor 8.918750 5000
61.68180 28700 2.149 LAC Justin Herbert 19.02740 7700 Keenan Allen 14.082000 7400
7700 Mike Williams 9.545000 5900
67.63783 31800 2.127 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.01700 8400 Davante Adams 17.952083 9100
8400 Robert Tonyan 7.651750 5900
52.70325 25700 2.051 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.25800 7200 Jarvis Landry 9.885000 5800
7200 Rashard Higgins 8.302250 5500
57.21005 28000 2.043 DET Matthew Stafford 17.69075 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.507547 7600
7200 T.J. Hockenson 8.321005 6000
58.26440 28900 2.016 LAR Jared Goff 16.90245 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.264250 7300
7300 Robert Woods 12.195250 7000
57.05331 28500 2.002 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.47985 7100 Adam Thielen 13.639864 7700
7100 Justin Jefferson 12.453750 6600
52.00570 26300 1.977 NO Drew Brees 16.63325 7600 Tre’Quan Smith 9.691750 5300
7600 Jared Cook 9.047453 5800
52.95250 26900 1.968 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.73750 7100 Diontae Johnson 10.157500 6200
7100 JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.320000 6500
46.89650 24200 1.938 NE Cam Newton 16.98200 7400 Damiere Byrd 6.621500 4900
7400 Jakobi Meyers 6.311000 4500
48.37848 25200 1.920 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.42730 6800 DeVante Parker 10.315250 6100
6800 Mike Gesicki 7.208635 5500
44.98100 23900 1.882 CHI Nick Foles 14.93800 6700 Anthony Miller 8.324000 5100
6700 Jimmy Graham 6.781000 5400
44.16112 25300 1.745 DEN Drew Lock 13.74860 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.907750 5600
7000 Noah Fant 7.756173 5700
39.01355 22600 1.726 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.33340 6500 Denzel Mims 8.346750 4900
6500 Braxton Berrios 6.000000 4700
20.59250 22800 0.903 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.254750 5500
6000 Trey Burton 8.023750 5300

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
106.26636 46000 2.310 SEA Russell Wilson 23.99350 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.755750 7200
8700 DK Metcalf 14.309607 7800
8700 Greg Olsen 5.220500 4900
86.48490 38400 2.252 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.33305 6600 George Kittle 14.017250 7700
6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.879500 5900
6600 Kendrick Bourne 8.589000 5000
108.33568 48900 2.215 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.09000 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.052686 8100
9200 Travis Kelce 13.938239 7900
9200 Demarcus Robinson 7.074750 5300
91.69759 41500 2.210 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.25325 7500 A.J. Brown 13.254596 7500
7500 Jonnu Smith 8.904491 6100
7500 Corey Davis 8.778750 5400
83.65277 38800 2.156 LV Derek Carr 18.23760 7300 Darren Waller 11.851221 6800
7300 Nelson Agholor 8.918750 5000
7300 Hunter Renfrow 8.170000 5100
91.06641 42300 2.153 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.75960 8300 Marquise Brown 10.892750 5900
8300 Mark Andrews 10.658360 7000
8300 Miles Boykin 4.236500 4500
88.11985 41000 2.149 CIN Joe Burrow 18.40770 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.655000 6400
7600 Tee Higgins 10.841000 6000
7600 A.J. Green 9.400750 5800
90.23073 42000 2.148 LAC Justin Herbert 19.02740 7700 Keenan Allen 14.082000 7400
7700 Mike Williams 9.545000 5900
7700 Hunter Henry 9.521531 5600
91.42700 42600 2.146 BUF Josh Allen 20.12670 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.648904 7100
8200 Cole Beasley 9.464250 5300
8200 John Brown 7.933750 5600
96.24983 45300 2.125 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.01700 8400 Davante Adams 17.952083 9100
8400 Robert Tonyan 7.651750 5900
8400 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.595000 5100
77.22125 37900 2.038 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.25800 7200 Jarvis Landry 9.885000 5800
7200 Rashard Higgins 8.302250 5500
7200 Harrison Bryant 7.260000 5000
81.34705 40100 2.029 DET Matthew Stafford 17.69075 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.507547 7600
7200 T.J. Hockenson 8.321005 6000
7200 Danny Amendola 6.446250 4900
78.66425 40000 1.967 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.73750 7100 Diontae Johnson 10.157500 6200
7100 JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.320000 6500
7100 Chase Claypool 8.974250 6000
81.70185 41900 1.950 LAR Jared Goff 16.90245 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.264250 7300
7300 Robert Woods 12.195250 7000
7300 Tyler Higbee 6.535000 5700
77.12641 40000 1.928 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.47985 7100 Adam Thielen 13.639864 7700
7100 Justin Jefferson 12.453750 6600
7100 Kyle Rudolph 4.593250 4400
73.58895 38600 1.906 NO Drew Brees 16.63325 7600 Tre’Quan Smith 9.691750 5300
7600 Jared Cook 9.047453 5800
7600 Deonte Harris 4.950000 4700
70.78878 37200 1.903 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.42730 6800 DeVante Parker 10.315250 6100
6800 Mike Gesicki 7.208635 5500
6800 Preston Williams 6.983000 5200
65.54900 35300 1.857 CHI Nick Foles 14.93800 6700 Anthony Miller 8.324000 5100
6700 Jimmy Graham 6.781000 5400
6700 Cordarrelle Patterson 5.630000 4700
65.83350 35700 1.844 NE Cam Newton 16.98200 7400 Damiere Byrd 6.621500 4900
7400 Jakobi Meyers 6.311000 4500
7400 Ryan Izzo 1.955000 4100
63.86422 37700 1.694 DEN Drew Lock 13.74860 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.907750 5600
7000 Noah Fant 7.756173 5700
7000 Tim Patrick 5.954500 5400
55.46670 33500 1.656 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.33340 6500 Denzel Mims 8.346750 4900
6500 Braxton Berrios 6.000000 4700
6500 Chris Herndon 4.119750 4400
30.22800 34000 0.889 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.254750 5500
6000 Trey Burton 8.023750 5300
6000 Zach Pascal 7.978500 5200

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
33.42329 11100 3.011 LV Derek Carr 18.51260 5500 Darren Waller 14.91069 5600
22.75265 8000 2.844 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.43340 4800 Denzel Mims 10.31925 3200
41.76662 14800 2.822 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.17750 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.58912 6700
36.88815 13100 2.816 LAC Justin Herbert 19.22740 6900 Keenan Allen 17.66075 6200
41.88925 14900 2.811 SEA Russell Wilson 24.08100 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.80825 7100
34.54980 12400 2.786 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.50805 5400 George Kittle 17.04175 7000
25.41850 9400 2.704 NE Cam Newton 17.07200 5700 Damiere Byrd 8.34650 3700
34.60395 12800 2.703 CIN Joe Burrow 18.75770 6200 Tyler Boyd 15.84625 6600
37.11826 13800 2.690 BUF Josh Allen 20.47670 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.64156 6800
36.00969 13700 2.628 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.42825 6800 A.J. Brown 15.58144 6900
42.92317 16400 2.617 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.11700 7600 Davante Adams 21.80617 8800
34.02159 13000 DET Matthew Stafford 17.86575 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.15584 6600
35.19735 13500 2.607 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.00960 7400 Marquise Brown 13.18775 6100
28.57750 11000 2.598 NO Drew Brees 16.78325 6300 Tre’Quan Smith 11.79425 4700
29.51300 11700 2.522 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.34300 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.17000 5600
25.39950 10100 2.515 CHI Nick Foles 15.07800 5800 Anthony Miller 10.32150 4300
28.04630 11300 2.482 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.55730 5600 DeVante Parker 12.48900 5700
32.18170 13000 2.476 LAR Jared Goff 17.10245 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.07925 6500
24.81885 10100 2.457 DEN Drew Lock 13.94860 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.87025 4800
29.49250 12100 2.437 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81500 6600 Diontae Johnson 12.67750 5500
32.09483 13200 2.431 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.67985 6000 Adam Thielen 16.41498 7200
13.01300 9400 1.384 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.29600 4900

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
62.71589 21300 2.944 LV Derek Carr 18.51260 5500 Darren Waller 14.910691 5600
5500 Nelson Agholor 10.780000 4700
82.96710 29500 2.812 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.17750 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.589122 6700
8100 Travis Kelce 17.022979 6600
67.85111 24200 2.804 LAC Justin Herbert 19.22740 6900 Keenan Allen 17.660750 6200
6900 Hunter Henry 11.735562 4200
66.08235 23600 2.800 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.50805 5400 George Kittle 17.041749 7000
5400 Brandon Aiyuk 14.024500 5800
83.39021 30200 2.761 SEA Russell Wilson 24.08100 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.808250 7100
7800 DK Metcalf 17.419965 7500
50.46525 18600 2.713 NE Cam Newton 17.07200 5700 Damiere Byrd 8.346500 3700
5700 Jakobi Meyers 7.974750 3500
66.60765 24600 2.708 CIN Joe Burrow 18.75770 6200 Tyler Boyd 15.846250 6600
6200 Tee Higgins 13.246000 5600
69.35671 26100 2.657 BUF Josh Allen 20.47670 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.641558 6800
7000 Cole Beasley 11.761750 5300
73.25517 27800 2.635 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.11700 7600 Davante Adams 21.806166 8800
7600 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.215000 3800
42.76105 16300 2.623 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.43340 4800 Denzel Mims 10.319250 3200
4800 Braxton Berrios 7.575000 3500
67.13294 25600 2.622 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.42825 6800 A.J. Brown 15.581442 6900
6800 Corey Davis 10.695000 5100
69.94117 26700 2.620 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.00960 7400 Marquise Brown 13.187750 6100
7400 Mark Andrews 12.734219 5800
56.91450 22000 2.587 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.34300 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.170000 5600
6100 Rashard Higgins 10.058500 4200
56.14491 21700 NO Drew Brees 16.78325 6300 Tre’Quan Smith 11.794250 4700
6300 Jared Cook 10.784156 4400
62.02410 24700 2.511 DET Matthew Stafford 17.86575 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.155845 6600
6400 T.J. Hockenson 10.136759 5300
64.04690 25800 2.482 LAR Jared Goff 17.10245 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.079250 6500
6500 Robert Woods 14.762750 6300
62.65343 25700 2.438 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.67985 6000 Adam Thielen 16.414979 7200
6000 Justin Jefferson 14.878750 6500
52.59587 21800 2.413 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.55730 5600 DeVante Parker 12.489000 5700
5600 Mike Gesicki 8.992270 4900
58.10750 24100 2.411 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81500 6600 Diontae Johnson 12.677500 5500
6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 11.800000 5400
48.35805 20100 2.406 DEN Drew Lock 13.94860 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.870250 4800
5300 Noah Fant 9.590597 4700
49.01100 20500 2.391 CHI Nick Foles 15.07800 5800 Anthony Miller 10.321500 4300
5800 Jimmy Graham 8.533500 4600
24.48125 17400 1.407 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.296000 4900
4500 Trey Burton 9.751250 3500

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
91.29599 30600 2.984 LV Derek Carr 18.51260 5500 Darren Waller 14.910691 5600
5500 Nelson Agholor 10.780000 4700
5500 Hunter Renfrow 10.067500 3800
93.91190 32500 2.890 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.50805 5400 George Kittle 17.041749 7000
5400 Brandon Aiyuk 14.024500 5800
5400 Kendrick Bourne 10.321500 3500
115.78935 40700 2.845 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.17750 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.589122 6700
8100 Travis Kelce 17.022979 6600
8100 Demarcus Robinson 8.644750 3100
98.27601 35500 2.768 LAC Justin Herbert 19.22740 6900 Keenan Allen 17.660750 6200
6900 Hunter Henry 11.735562 4200
6900 Mike Williams 11.197500 4400
97.02235 35300 2.749 CIN Joe Burrow 18.75770 6200 Tyler Boyd 15.846250 6600
6200 Tee Higgins 13.246000 5600
6200 A.J. Green 11.657000 4500
114.03171 41600 2.741 SEA Russell Wilson 24.08100 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.808250 7100
7800 DK Metcalf 17.419965 7500
7800 Greg Olsen 6.560500 3600
98.21767 36500 2.691 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.42825 6800 A.J. Brown 15.581442 6900
6800 Corey Davis 10.695000 5100
6800 Jonnu Smith 10.656482 4100
99.49216 37500 2.653 BUF Josh Allen 20.47670 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.641558 6800
7000 Cole Beasley 11.761750 5300
7000 John Brown 9.658750 4400
82.83750 31300 2.647 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.34300 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.170000 5600
6100 Rashard Higgins 10.058500 4200
6100 Harrison Bryant 8.580000 3200
97.12852 37100 2.618 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.00960 7400 Marquise Brown 13.187750 6100
7400 Mark Andrews 12.734219 5800
7400 Miles Boykin 5.177750 3000
69.91725 26800 2.609 NE Cam Newton 17.07200 5700 Damiere Byrd 8.346500 3700
5700 Jakobi Meyers 7.974750 3500
5700 Ryan Izzo 2.380000 2500
103.54267 39700 2.608 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.11700 7600 Davante Adams 21.806166 8800
7600 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.215000 3800
7600 Robert Tonyan 9.170500 4300
87.99860 34400 2.558 DET Matthew Stafford 17.86575 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.155845 6600
6400 T.J. Hockenson 10.136759 5300
6400 Danny Amendola 8.108750 3300
60.55045 24000 2.523 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.43340 4800 Denzel Mims 10.319250 3200
4800 Braxton Berrios 7.575000 3500
4800 Chris Herndon 5.356000 2900
78.92816 31300 2.522 NO Drew Brees 16.78325 6300 Tre’Quan Smith 11.794250 4700
6300 Jared Cook 10.784156 4400
6300 Deonte Harris 6.000000 3300
89.28935 36800 2.426 LAR Jared Goff 17.10245 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.079250 6500
6500 Robert Woods 14.762750 6300
6500 Tyler Higbee 8.140000 4500
76.66117 31700 2.418 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.55730 5600 DeVante Parker 12.489000 5700
5600 Mike Gesicki 8.992270 4900
5600 Preston Williams 8.508000 4300
70.66900 29500 2.396 CHI Nick Foles 15.07800 5800 Anthony Miller 10.321500 4300
5800 Jimmy Graham 8.533500 4600
5800 Cordarrelle Patterson 6.580000 3200
84.05528 35100 2.395 MIN Kirk Cousins 15.67985 6000 Adam Thielen 16.414979 7200
6000 Justin Jefferson 14.878750 6500
6000 Kyle Rudolph 5.722000 3400
85.75550 35900 2.389 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81500 6600 Diontae Johnson 12.677500 5500
6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 11.800000 5400
6600 Chase Claypool 10.833000 5200
69.73865 30100 2.317 DEN Drew Lock 13.94860 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.870250 4800
5300 Noah Fant 9.590597 4700
5300 Tim Patrick 7.432000 4700
35.88050 26400 1.359 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.296000 4900
4500 Trey Burton 9.751250 3500
4500 Zach Pascal 9.682250 4500

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.